Predicting Outcomes Following Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair Using Machine Learning

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop machine learning (ML) models that predict outcomes following endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). BACKGROUND: EVAR carries non-negligible perioperative risks; however, there are no widely used outcome prediction tools. METHODS: The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted database was used to identify patients who underwent EVAR for infrarenal AAA between 2011 and 2021. Input features included 36 preoperative variables. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death). Data were split into training (70%) and test (30%) sets. Using 10-fold cross-validation, 6 ML models were trained using preoperative features. The primary model evaluation metric was area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Model robustness was evaluated with calibration plot and Brier score. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess model performance based on age, sex, race, ethnicity, and prior AAA repair. RESULTS: Overall, 16,282 patients were included. The primary outcome of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event occurred in 390 (2.4%) patients. Our best-performing prediction model was XGBoost, achieving an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) of 0.95 (0.94-0.96) compared with logistic regression [0.72 [0.70-0.74)]. The calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed event probabilities with a Brier score of 0.06. Model performance remained robust on all subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our newer ML models accurately predict 30-day outcomes following EVAR using preoperative data and perform better than logistic regression. Our automated algorithms can guide risk mitigation strategies for patients being considered for EVAR.

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