REAL-WORLD VALIDATION OF A MACHINE-LEARNING ALGORITHM PREDICTING TREATMENT STRATEGY FOR HIP OSTEOARTRITIS

Abstract

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming more powerful but is barely used to counter the growth in health care burden. AI applications to increase efficiency in orthopedics are rare. We questioned if (1) we could train machine learning (ML) algorithms, based on answers from digitalized history taking questionnaires, to predict treatment of hip osteoartritis (either conservative or surgical); (2) such an algorithm could streamline clinical consultation. Multiple ML models were trained on 600 annotated (80% training, 20% test) digital history taking questionnaires, acquired before consultation. Best performing models, based on balanced accuracy and optimized automated hyperparameter tuning, were build into our daily clinical orthopedic practice. Fifty patients with hip complaints (>45 years) were prospectively predicted and planned (partly blinded, partly unblinded) for consultation with the physician assistant (conservative) or orthopedic surgeon (operative). Tailored patient information based on the prediction was automatically sent to a smartphone app. Level of evidence: IV. Random Forest and BernoulliNB were the most accurate ML models (0.75 balanced accuracy). Treatment prediction was correct in 45 out of 50 consultations (90%), p<0.0001 (sign and binomial test). Specialized consultations where conservatively predicted patients were seen by the physician assistant and surgical patients by the orthopedic surgeon were highly appreciated and effective. Treatment strategy of hip osteoartritis based on answers from digital history taking questionnaires was accurately predicted before patients entered the hospital. This can make outpatient consultation scheduling more efficient and tailor pre-consultation patient education.

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