Interpretable mortality prediction model for ICU patients with pneumonia: using shapley additive explanation method

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Pneumonia, a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, often necessitates Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Accurate prediction of pneumonia mortality is crucial for tailored prevention and treatment plans. However, existing mortality prediction models face limited adoption in clinical practice due to their lack of interpretability. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop an interpretable model for predicting pneumonia mortality in ICUs. Leveraging the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method, we sought to elucidate the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model and identify prognostic factors for pneumonia. METHODS: Conducted as a retrospective cohort study, we utilized electronic health records from the eICU-CRD (2014-2015) for all adult pneumonia patients. The first 24 h of each ICU admission records were considered, with 70% of the dataset allocated for model training and 30% for validation. The XGBoost model was employed, and performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The SHAP method provided insights into the XGBoost model. RESULTS: Among 10,962 pneumonia patients, in-hospital mortality was 16.33%. The XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive performance (AUC: 0.778 ± 0.016)) compared to traditional scoring systems and other machine learning method, which achieved an improvement of 10% points. SHAP analysis identified Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST) as the most crucial predictor. CONCLUSIONS: Interpretable predictive models enhance mortality risk assessment for pneumonia patients in the ICU, fostering transparency. AST emerged as the foremost predictor, followed by patient age, albumin, BMI et al. These insights, rooted in strong correlations with mortality, facilitate improved clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

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