Machine Learning-Based Prediction of Mortality in Geriatric Traumatic Brain Injury Patients

Abstract

Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is a major contributor to mortality among older adults, with geriatric patients facing disproportionately high risk due to age-related physiological vulnerability and comorbidities. Early and accurate prediction of mortality is essential for guiding clinical decision-making and optimizing ICU resource allocation. In this study, we utilized the MIMIC-III database and identified a final analytic cohort of 667 geriatric TBI patients, on which we developed a machine learning framework for 30-day mortality prediction. A rigorous preprocessing pipeline—including Random Forest-based imputation, feature engineering, and hybrid selection—was implemented to refine predictors from 69 to 9 clinically meaningful variables. CatBoost emerged as the top-performing model, achieving an AUROC of 0.867 (95% CI: 0.809–0.922), with a sensitivity of 0.752 and a specificity of 0.888 on the independent test set. SHAP analysis confirmed the importance of the GCS score, oxygen saturation, and prothrombin time as dominant predictors. These findings highlight the potential value of interpretable machine learning tools for early mortality risk stratification in elderly TBI patients and support further validation for future clinical use.

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